Precinct-level analysis of six Democratic candidates across six election cycles. The finding that drew attention: Katie Porter shares roughly 70% voter overlap with Tom Steyer — a result that should change how the primary field thinks about consolidation and where each campaign actually competes.
We assembled precinct-level results from six California statewide elections — the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial cycles, the 2020 and 2024 presidential primaries, and two ballot measure cycles relevant to the candidates' issue profiles. Each candidate's likely voter universe was modeled from their actual electoral performance, weighted by precinct turnout history.
The Porter / Steyer ~70% overlap figure describes the share of precincts where both candidates' modeled support clusters land in the same tier. In practical terms: the two campaigns are competing for the same voters in the same places. The implication for consolidation strategy is the obvious one.
This analysis is published as VoterForce research. The same methodology is available as a paid engagement for campaigns and consultancies who want it run on their race.
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