VoterForce
VoterForce Bay Area Political Intelligence  ·  2026 Cycle
California  ·  Governor's Race  ·  June 2026 Primary
Precinct-Level Analysis  ·  23,695 Precincts Modeled

Democrats Are Losing Their Own Primary. Can the Map Save Them?

California Democrats hold 47% registration. Republicans hold 24%. In any normal election, Democrats win easily.

But in this year's top-two jungle primary, Democrats are running three candidates against two Republicans. Compounding risks threaten a shutout.

Precinct-level analysis points to a more likely outcome that leaves Democrats at risk of fielding a less-popular candidate against the Trump-endorsed Republican.

23,695Precincts
10Candidates
2Top Finishers
Scenario 1: Undecided Voters Surge
35% of voters haven't decided. A Republican surge eliminates Steyer — setting up Porter vs. Hilton in November.
Bars = baseline if undecideds split proportionally.
Red extensions = votes Rs gain if each picks up +4pts from undecideds.
After Rs gain +4pts from undecideds
Porter (D)
25.5%
▼3.2
TOP 2
Hilton (R)
+3.0
25.5%
▲3.0
TOP 2
Bianco (R)
+3.5
22.1%
▲3.5
MISS
Steyer (D)
19.3%
▼2.4
Mahan (D)
7.6%
▼0.9
TOP-2 CUTOFF
← FALLS OUT ADVANCES →
Republican surge — votes gained from undecided voters
Porter still advances at 25.5% — tied with Hilton. Steyer is eliminated at 19.3%. The likely November runoff: Porter vs. Hilton, with a fractured Democratic coalition.
Scenario 2: Democratic Voters Split
Porter and Steyer share the same coalition and split the same voters across 70% of the electorate.
Solid bars = current reality, splitting 35% of primary votes.
Ghost bars = if Steyer consolidated behind Porter.
Current split vs. consolidated
Porter (D)
28.7%
▲17.4
TOP 2
Hilton (R)
22.5%
TOP 2
Steyer (D)
21.7%
▼19.5
MISS
Bianco (R)
18.6%
Mahan (D)
8.5%
▲2.2
TOP-2 CUTOFF
← FALLS OUT ADVANCES →
Porter and Steyer together hold 35% — enough to win comfortably. Split, Steyer sits at 21.7%, just 2 points behind Hilton — within the margin of error.
The Most Likely Outcome.
The Democrat most likely to survive the primary will be a weaker candidate against the Republican in the general.
About This Analysis

Methodology

This dashboard presents precinct-level electoral modeling for the 2026 California Governor's race, built on certified vote records rather than polling alone. Rather than asking "who do you plan to vote for," we ask "how have voters in each precinct, city, and county actually voted in comparable elections?" The result is a data-driven map of where each candidate's coalition lives — and what the arithmetic of a top-two jungle primary means for November.

01Data Foundation

The core dataset is the California Statewide Database (SWDB), which publishes certified Statement of Votes Cast (SOV) files for every state election. Our precinct file covers 23,695 statewide race precincts from the 2022 General Election, supplemented with Santa Clara County and Riverside County 2024 SOV files for local race integration.

SourceDetails
Primary datasetSWDB 2022 General · 23,695 precincts
SupplementalSCC + Riverside 2024 SOV
Geographic58-county TIGER/PL94-171 shapefile
Polling baselineEmerson/PPIC · Mar–Apr 2026
Undecided share35.5% post-Swalwell consensus

02Candidate Models

Porter (D)Measured

2022 AG race — Becerra (D) vs. Hochman (R), county two-party share. Porter's educated suburban, coastal coalition closely mirrors Becerra's 2022 footprint. The only candidate with a near-direct electoral analogue.

Steyer (D)Proxy

2022 Governor race — Newsom (D) × 0.95. Newsom represents the Democratic ceiling in each geography; the 5% haircut reflects Steyer's lower institutional support. County-level correlation with Porter: r = +0.998.

Mahan (D)OLS Regression

mahan_share = 0.2745 + 0.7670 × rep_share_gov. Built from 2022 San Jose mayoral results and scaled statewide using each county's Republican gubernatorial share. Produces higher Democratic performance in inland, Republican-leaning geographies — exactly the crossover coalition the map shows.

Hilton (R)Proxy

2022 Republican gubernatorial baseline × 1.20. Reflects Hilton's higher ceiling among motivated base voters as a Trump-aligned populist.

Bianco (R)Proxy

2022 Republican gubernatorial baseline × 1.15. Slightly smaller multiplier than Hilton reflecting lower base-mobilization potential as a more conventional Republican.

03Scenario Construction

Both scenarios start from the same polling baseline — 64.5% of voters distributed across five candidates, 35.5% undecided — and test how small changes in how undecideds break can shift who advances.

ScenarioAssumption
① Undecided SurgeEach R gains +4pts from undecideds; remainder proportional
② Coalition SplitCurrent polling split held as final outcome; r=+0.998 D correlation is the mechanism

04General Election Projections

Head-to-head matchups normalize each Democrat against Hilton using a two-party share formula at the county level:

dem_share = dem_proxy ÷ (dem_proxy + hilton_proxy)
MatchupDem %CountiesVotes
Mahan vs. Hilton55.5%4110.73M
Porter vs. Hilton55.1%217.02M
Steyer vs. Hilton54.2%253.6M

05Caveats & Limitations

  • All candidate models are proxies based on prior elections — not endorsements or outcome predictions.
  • Polling is a snapshot; undecided share and candidate standing will shift as the primary approaches.
  • The OLS model for Mahan extrapolates from a single city-level election to a statewide geography. This is an assumption, not a measurement.
  • Head-to-head projections assume a two-candidate general election; third-party effects are not modeled.
  • Precinct-level data is used for coalition correlation analysis; county-level aggregates are used for the map.
  • This analysis was produced by VoterForce in April 2026. Candidate field and polling will change.
Built by VoterForce · theregional.io  ·  April 2026 · Bay Area Political Intelligence