VoterForce · from SPUR's Bumper to Bumper, Sept 2026

Eight hot spots for traffic delays after potential transit cuts

Minutes of peak-period delay at each highway bottleneck today, and after the BART, Caltrain and Muni cuts modeled by SPUR and Jacobs. Click a pin or a row for the numbers, text and photos from the report.

What could transit cuts mean for your drive?

Even if you never ride transit. See the extra delay SPUR modeled at the bottlenecks on your route.

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Hot spotWorst peak

    Region-wide, if the cuts happen

    430,000people within 1 mile of a BART or Caltrain station assumed to close
    498Mmore vehicle miles a year, like adding 68,200 cars
    184,000 tmore CO₂ a year, the uptake of 219,000 acres of forest
    $3,280more a year for a rider who shifts to driving. SPUR puts Prop. RTM at about $82 a year for people earning up to 80% of area median income.
    17.8MMuni trips a year on the 20 routes eligible to be cut
    241,410registered voters live within 1 mile of a station assumed to close VoterForce
    163,300people who drive to work live within 1 mile of a station assumed to close, vs. 12,300 who take transit VoterForce · Census

    SPUR says Muni needs both measures to avoid severe cuts: regional Prop. RTM and San Francisco’s Prop. H parcel tax, which covers about half of Muni’s deficit.

    Losing walkable station access, by county

    CountyPeople SPURRegistered voters VoterForce
    Santa Clara146,35079,390
    San Mateo116,00060,130
    Contra Costa102,70038,760
    Alameda63,40048,300
    San Francisconot given14,830

    SPUR counts everyone in census tracts touching a 1-mile circle, so its figures run larger. The voter counts include only census blocks whose center is within 1 mile of a station, and count each voter once even where two stations overlap. Commuter counts are estimates from the Census Bureau's 2020–2024 American Community Survey (table B08301), split from census tracts to those same blocks by population. They count how people usually get to work. A BART rider who drives to the station counts as transit.

    How SPUR and Jacobs got these numbers
    • 2025 Caltrans PeMS hourly counts, Tuesday–Thursday averages, for each bottleneck.
    • Sept–Oct 2025 BART and Caltrain boardings by station.
    • Riders assumed to switch to driving: 56% at closed end-of-line stations, 30% at other closed stations, 25% at stations that stay open with less service.
    • Delay estimated hour by hour with the Moskowitz Method. Peak is 6–9 a.m. and 3–6 p.m.
    • BART and Caltrain have not named which stations would close. SPUR assumed the lowest-ridership ones, so the station layer is SPUR's assumption.
    • Only these bottlenecks were modeled, so the figures are a fraction of total regional delay. AC Transit cuts appear only in the VMT figure.

    Working on this measure? See VoterForce precinct targeting for all five counties →

    Built by VoterForce. Not affiliated with or endorsed by SPUR or the Prop. RTM campaign. SPUR, whose report this map is built on, is a sponsor of Prop. RTM. Registered-voter counts: VoterForce analysis of the California Statewide Database’s November 2025 registration by 2020 census block, rounded to the nearest 10. Commuter counts: VoterForce analysis of U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2020–2024 table B08301, rounded to the nearest 100. Transit and traffic figures: SPUR-Jacobs, Bumper to Bumper (research brief, September 2026). Interactive rebuild of the report's page-6 map. Pin positions follow the report's map and are approximate. Photos as credited in the report. Basemap: U.S. Census Bureau.